Wall Street is not trying to value Anthropic by what it earns today. It is trying to decide what the company is worth if, within two years, it can sell almost four times more than it does now.
Anthropic forecasts roughly $190–200 billion in 2028 revenue, according to two people familiar with its finances cited by Reuters. That projection is shaping discussions ahead of a potential IPO that could become one of the largest on record.
The company disclosed a revenue run rate above $47 billion in May, up from about $9 billion at the end of 2025. A run rate annualises recent sales; it is useful for speed, but it is not the same as a completed year of stable revenue.
Anthropic also expects at least $10.9 billion of second-quarter revenue and its first quarterly operating profit, about $559 million. One profitable quarter is meaningful, but it does not yet prove a mature long-term business model.
AdvertisementARQUITHEAArchitecture for seeing more clearlyIdeas, buildings and tools for understanding the city through real questions.Follow @arquithea_ ↗Bankers and potential investors are applying multiples to future revenue. Looking two years ahead is less common and shows how difficult it is to price a company that is expanding quickly while spending heavily on computing, training and hiring.
The optimistic case assumes those costs become a smaller share of revenue. More efficient models and chips could expand margins. The counterargument begins with competition: cheaper, open and specialised models may push prices down or let customers split work between providers.
AI revenue also has a physical base. Each request needs processors, memory, cooling, networks, buildings and electricity. Anthropic may contract some of that capacity from others, but the cost merely changes owner and balance sheet.
For architects and creative professionals, today's inexpensive assistant may become embedded in documents, coordination and operations. The deeper the integration, the more expensive it becomes to switch when pricing or terms change.
The verifiable fact is that Anthropic projects $190–200 billion of revenue in 2028 and that bankers are using that forecast in valuation discussions. The editorial reading begins with how much infrastructure, energy and dependency must be built before the number stops being a promise.
Can a company be worth today what it expects to earn two years from now?
It can, but only as an explicit bet. The price assumes growth, margins and demand that do not yet exist. The further the valuation looks, the more important it is to separate recorded revenue from forecasts and to count the physical costs required to reach them.
